The Ticker Talk: Turkey, Tech, and the "Super Wednesday" Data Dump
A government shutdown backlog meets a holiday-shortened week. Here is your survival guide for the chaos before the turkey.
The Week at a Glance
Happy Sunday. If you are hoping for a quiet, drift-into-the-holiday week, you might be disappointed—at least until Thursday.
We are heading into one of the most peculiar trading weeks of 2025. The US markets are CLOSED on Thursday, November 27, for Thanksgiving and will close EARLY (1:00 PM ET) on Friday, November 28.
Usually, this implies low volume and low volatility. However, due to the recent 43-day government shutdown, we are facing a “data backlog” collision. Agencies are cramming what is normally a week’s worth of economic releases—plus delayed reports from October—into a single trading session: Wednesday, November 26.
Expect liquidity to dry up by Tuesday afternoon as the “smart money” heads to the Hamptons, leaving the algorithms to handle the Wednesday data deluge. This is a recipe for erratic, sharp moves.
The Macro View: “Super Wednesday”
Mark your calendars. Wednesday isn’t just a travel day; it is arguably the most important macro day of the month. Because markets are closed Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Labor Department are releasing everything at once.
The Main Event: PCE (Wednesday AM): The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—drops Wednesday morning. Following last week’s hawkish FOMC minutes (which showed a Fed divided on cutting rates), the market is desperate for a “cool” number. If PCE comes in hot, the odds of a December rate cut—which have already slipped to near 35%—could vanish entirely.
GDP Revision (Q3): We will get the second look at Q3 GDP. Markets want to see growth that is “just right”—strong enough to avoid recession fears, but not so hot that it reignites inflation.
The Shutdown Backlog: Be aware that we may see “stale” data releases (revised Producer Price Indexes or Retail Sales from the shutdown period) hitting the wire. Algos may react to headlines that are technically months old, so be careful trading off knee-jerk news alerts.
The Fed: The December Chill
Last week’s release of the October FOMC minutes cast a shadow over the market that will persist this week. The key takeaway? The Federal Reserve is not in a rush.
The minutes revealed a split committee, with significant hesitation regarding a December cut due to sticky inflation in the services sector. The “Fed Put” (the idea the Fed will save the market) feels further away than it did in October. Unless Wednesday’s PCE number is miraculously low, expect the “higher for longer” narrative to dominate the turkey talk at family dinners.
Earnings: The Last Stand Before Retail
While the bulk of earnings season is behind us, a few critical reports will land before the holiday, offering insight into both the industrial economy and the tech hardware cycle.
Tech Hardware: Keep an eye on Agilent Technologies (A) and potentially Dell (DELL) or HP (HPQ) (reporting dates often shift in holiday weeks). These reports are crucial for understanding enterprise IT spending—are companies actually buying the hardware needed to run all that AI software they promised?
Retail Check-In: While Walmart (WMT) already crushed earnings last week (sending the stock to highs), we are watching for stragglers like Best Buy (BBY) or Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), which historically report during this week. Their forward guidance will tell us if Walmart’s success was an outlier or a sector-wide trend.
Crypto Corner: The $80k Floor?
Bitcoin has had a rough week, tumbling roughly 8% and breaching the psychological $81,000 level (a level not seen since the post-halving consolidation).
The Liquidity Trap: Crypto never closes, but bank wires do. With US banking systems offline Thursday and Friday, fiat on-ramps will be closed. This often creates a “liquidity trap” where low volume allows whales to push prices aggressively in either direction.
The Setup: Bulls are looking to defend $80k. If that level breaks during the low-volume holiday weekend, we could see a flush down to support levels established earlier in 2025. Conversely, a “Santa Claus Rally” often starts after Black Friday, so contrarians might be looking to bid the fear.
The Black Friday Test
Finally, the week ends with the ultimate real-world economic indicator: The Consumer.
With savings rates dwindling and credit card delinquency ticking up, analysts are terrified that this Black Friday will be a “bust.” However, the American consumer has bet against the economists for three years straight and won.
Watch List: Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), and PayPal (PYPL).
The Metric: Ignore the lines at the mall; watch the online sales data releasing Friday afternoon. If the consumer hibernates this weekend, the “Soft Landing” narrative hits a wall.
The Bottom Line: Preserve your capital. Wednesday will be noisy, Thursday is closed, and Friday is a half-day. The real trend likely won’t reveal itself until everyone returns to their desks on December 1st.
The PYPL callout for Black Friday is smart. If online sales data on Friday comes in weak, payment processors are going to feel it first. The liquidity trap you mentioned for crypto is also worth waching, especialy with the banking wires closed Thursday and Friday.