The Ticker Talk: Monday Morning Breakdown

All Eyes on the Fed and Big Tech as Markets Test New Highs

Welcome to your Monday Morning Breakdown, where we cut through the noise to give you the key drivers for the stock market in the week ahead.

Markets are entering the last week of October with powerful bullish momentum. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both charged to fresh all-time highs last week, propelled by a strong start to the Q3 earnings season and growing certainty that the Federal Reserve will deliver another interest rate cut.

The question now is whether this rally has the fuel to continue. This week will be the market’s biggest test yet, with a packed schedule featuring a critical Fed decision and a “who’s who” of corporate earnings.

Here’s what to watch for the week of October 27, 2025.

The Main Event: The Federal Reserve Decision

The entire market will be holding its breath until 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, October 29, for the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) policy decision and statement.

Following recent inflation data that came in cooler than expected, the market is now pricing in a near-100% probability of a 25-basis-point (0.25%) rate cut. This would bring the federal funds rate down to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%.

Because the cut itself is already expected, it is unlikely to move markets. The real volatility will come from the Fed’s accompanying statement and Chairman Powell’s press conference. Investors will be parsing every word for clues about the Fed’s future path:

• Does the Fed signal that more cuts are coming in December and 2026?

• Does their language remain “data-dependent,” or do they express new concerns about slowing growth?

Any deviation from the market’s dovish expectation could trigger a significant repricing in both stocks and bonds.

Other Key Economic Data

Beyond the Fed, we have a heavy economic calendar that will provide a fresh snapshot of the economy’s health.

• Monday (Oct. 27): Durable Goods Orders (Sep)

• Tuesday (Oct. 28): S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence (Oct)

• Thursday (Oct. 30): Advance (First) Q3 GDP—This is the first look at economic growth from July to September and will be a major data point.

• Friday (Oct. 31): Personal Income & Spending (Sep), PCE Price Index (The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), Chicago PMI

Earnings Gauntlet: The Proving Ground

This is the busiest and most important week of the Q3 earnings season. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, which have been responsible for the lion’s share of the market’s gains this year, are in the spotlight. Expectations are sky-high, meaning even a slight miss or weak guidance could be punished.

Here are just a few of the titans reporting:

• Tuesday: Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (V), United Parcel Service (UPS), Booking Holdings (BKNG)

• Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Starbucks (SBUX)

• Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck & Co. (MRK)

• Friday: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV)

The commentary from these mega-cap companies on consumer spending, cloud budgets, and AI investment will set the tone for the entire market heading into the end of the year.

Sector Spotlight: Movers and Shakers

Improving: Technology & Industrials Last week saw a clear “risk-on” rotation. The Technology sector led all gainers, jumping 2.77%, followed closely by the Industrials sector, which rose 2.51%. This signals that investors are feeling confident, buying into growth-oriented and economically sensitive areas of the market, largely driven by the ongoing AI enthusiasm and optimism about a “soft landing.”

Declining: Utilities & Consumer Defensive When investors are confident, they sell “safe” sectors. The two worst-performing sectors last week were the defensive ones: Consumer Defensive (Staples) and Utilities. This rotation out of safety and into growth confirms the market’s current bullish appetite. We will be watching to see if this trend continues or if any of this week’s data spooks investors back into defensive positioning.

The Bottom Line

The market is entering the week in an “overbought” condition, riding a wave of optimism. This optimism will be put to the test. A dovish Fed and strong earnings from Big Tech could send indexes soaring even higher. However, any disappointment from either could be the perfect catalyst for a much-needed and healthy market consolidation.

Trade smart, and stay informed.